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UKRAINE AND RUSSIA: WILL EUROPE STEP UP?

MONDAY, MAY 12TH, 7:00 - 8:30PM ET


Watch the full forum and the short version below, created by Rick Brotman '73!

CLICK FOR RESOURCES FROM THE FORUM

In today’s world, where we live, there is no longer someone else’s war. None of you can feel safe when there is a war in Ukraine, when there is a war in Europe.

--- President Volodymyr Zelensky

As Ukrainians continue to fight for their country’s survival and the prospects for peace with Russia dim, ClassACT HR73 held its third forum on Ukraine on May 12, 2025. Moderator Ryan O’Connell ’73, the author of the Wall Street Democrat on Substack, led a discussion on the status of the battlefield, the conditions of Putin’s Russia, and the prospects for increased European support if the United States stops supporting Ukraine. Joining him was a panel that included international security expert and retired Marine Colonel Mark Cancian ’73, former U.S. Ambassador to Croatia Peter Galbraith ’73, and former Associated Press Moscow bureau chief and former president and CEO of Radio Free Europe Thomas Kent.

As the troops on both sides battle in open fields and villages still scarred by World War II, the conflict that has raged for over three years is at a “stalemate, but Russian troops have the initiative,” said Mark Cancian. “The Russians continue to attack and take territory but at extremely high cost.” Estimates of Russian casualties range as high as 700,000.

Facing a new US administration led by a president who has demonstrated sympathy for Putin and antipathy toward President Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine faces the prospect of losing its chief ally, which has provided 50% of the weapons that have enabled it to keep fighting. Arms purchased under previous US appropriations will continue to flow for several more years, but at a sharply declining rate, unless the Trump administration cuts off the shipments. However, without additional US commitments for military aid, it will be very difficult for Ukraine to fight for an extended period. “Europe is stepping up the arms flow, but they start from such a low level,” Cancian said.

Russia, too, has been transformed by years of Putin’s war, though not by the violence Ukraine has endured. “Putin has made Russia into a war economy, and a lot of people have made money,” said Tom Kent. Nonetheless, there are signs of economic pressure, with interest rates at 21 percent and inflation at 10 percent. Oil prices are falling, which reduces a key source of government revenue, and China has reduced trade with Russia.

Efforts by Putin and his propaganda machine to inspire patriotic fervor for the Ukraine war similar to what Stalin mustered during the fight against Hitler’s Germany in the 1940s have not generated the same ardor, Kent explained. While polling indicates that 70 percent of Russians still support military action in Ukraine, 70 percent also hope for a cease fire. “The Russian people are tired of war,” he added, and may want a “peace dividend”, such as greater political rights, after the war ends.

While Zelensky’s government has heard the Trump administration call for a cease fire that would accept Russian occupation of Crimea and nearly all territory captured since 2022, it has also received growing diplomatic and military support from other European nations. “European leaders have been stepping up,” said Peter Galbraith.

“What is at stake is the collective world order that we have had since 1945,” Galbraith continued. “The context is the end of the norm against invading another country and seizing territory.” A deal in Ukraine that legitimized Russia’s capture of the Donbas region would establish a precedent for similar actions in the future and pave the way for the possible demise of NATO, according to Galbraith.

During the final round table all three panelists concurred that the best Ukraine and its supporters might hope for was a “frozen conflict” or permanent cease fire. “Putin could dress it up as a partial victory,’’ said Cancian.

“I don’t think Ukrainians have much choice,” said Galbraith. “They are slowly losing ground and they have lost their most important ally.”

Even if the current cease fire talks were to prove successful, Putin will still face a Europe transformed by the brutal war he unleashed in February 2022. European leaders like French President Emmanuel Macron increasingly see the need for their continent to take a tough and independent stand against Russian ambitions. NATO membership has grown with Sweden and Finland joining the alliance.

“The center of gravity of anti-Russian feeling is moving east,” said Tom Kent, pointing to the fears of the Nordic and Baltic states and the growing military strength of Poland.

The forum concluded with the moderator and the three panelists offering Calls to Action to support the people of Ukraine in their struggle against Russia as well as to offer more truthful voices to the Russian people. Kent urged the audience to support Russian news media in exile by contributing to the Foundation for Democracy and Liberal Values

On the US front Cancian said “As you have conversations with peers and political leaders, emphasize the need for arms to keep flowing.”

Galbraith urged the audience to stress to Europeans that they need to “step up” their own support for Ukraine. Finally, O’Connell asked for support for Razom for Ukraine, a non-profit that provides medical supplies to Ukrainians on the front lines and in the country’s embattled cities.

OUR PANELISTS + CALLS TO ACTION


MODERATOR RYAN O'CONNELL '73

Author, The Wall Street Democrat newsletter (Substack)

Ryan received an A.B. in History from Harvard University in 1973 and a J.D. from the University of Pennsylvania in 1977. After working as a corporate lawyer and a banker in New York City, Ryan found his true calling as a bond analyst on Wall Street. At firms such as Moody’s, Citigroup, and Bloomberg, he wrote frequently about banks and other financial institutions. He found these firms particularly fascinating because they are profoundly affected by the economy and government policies as well as market trends. Ryan retired in 2018.

Ryan has a lifelong interest in politics. He has written a bi-monthly newsletter on politics since 2015, providing a moderate Democratic perspective. He publishes The Wall Street Democrat on Substack. Ryan has also written numerous articles for The Globalist, an English-language online daily based in Berlin, Germany.

Ryan has helped to create four ClassAct forums on political and voting issues. He has written several articles for ClassAct on gerrymandering, voter suppression and other election issues.

Ryan traveled extensively in Latin America during the 1970s, at a time when military dictatorships ruled most of the continent. These experiences drove home to him how fortunate Americans have been to enjoy fair elections, freedom of the press, and other rights that we often take for granted.

CALL TO ACTION:

  • Razom for Ukraine provides medical supplies for soldiers and civilians in Ukraine, among its other programs. Razom ("Together" in Ukrainian) delivers first-aid supplies to the front line and it also supports Ukrainian hospitals that are treating civilians. Razom is a 501 (c) (3) organization that was established in 2014. Based in NYC, Razom has built an extensive volunteer network in Ukraine.

MARK CANCIAN '73

International Security Expert

Retired Marine Colonel

Mark Cancian (Colonel, USMCR, ret.) is a senior adviser with the CSIS International Security Program. He joined CSIS in April 2015 from the Office of Management and Budget, where he spent more than seven years as chief of the Force Structure and Investment Division, working on issues such as Department of Defense budget strategy, war funding, and procurement programs, as well as nuclear weapons development and nonproliferation activities in the Department of Energy. Previously, he worked on force structure and acquisition issues in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and ran research and executive programs at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government. In the military, Colonel Cancian spent over three decades in the U.S. Marine Corps, active and reserve, serving as an infantry, artillery, and civil affairs officer and on overseas tours in Vietnam, Desert Storm, and Iraq (twice). Since 2000, he has been an adjunct faculty member at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, where he teaches a course on the connection between policy and analysis. A prolific author, he has published over 40 articles on military operations, acquisition, budgets, and strategy and received numerous writing awards. He graduated with high honors (magna cum laude) from Harvard College and with highest honors (Baker scholar) from Harvard Business School.

CALL TO ACTION:

  • When you have conversations with peers and political leaders, emphasize how important it is for the flow of military equipment already promised to Ukraine from the US to continue. This is critical, as it will allow Ukraine to continue on for many months, regardless of the possibility of a ceasefire.

PETER GALBRAITH '73

Former US Ambassador to Croatia

Ambassador Peter W. Galbraith is an author, academic, commentator, politician, policy advisor, and former United States diplomat. From 1993 to 1998, he served as the first U.S. Ambassador to Croatia, where he was co-mediator of the 1995 Erdut Agreement that ended the Croatian War of Independence. He was a cabinet member in East Timor’s first transitional government, successfully negotiating the Timor Sea Treaty. In 2009, Ambassador Galbraith was an Assistant Secretary General of the United Nations serving as Deputy Special Representative for Afghanistan. Ambassador Galbraith served two terms as a Vermont State Senator from Windham County from 2011 to 2015, and was a candidate for Governor of Vermont in 2016. He is the author of two critically acclaimed books on the Iraq War, including the bestselling The End of Iraq: How American Incompetence Created a War Without End. Ambassador Galbraith argues that Iraq has broken up into three parts, allowing for Kurdistan’s independence. In the 1980s, Galbraith uncovered the beginnings of the Anfal campaign against the Iraqi Kurds and, in 1988, documented the use of chemical weapons, leading the US Senate to pass comprehensive sanctions legislation (“The Prevention of Genocide Act of 1988”) authored by Galbraith. He was in Kurdistan during the 1991 uprising and his reports–including video footage of the uprising’s collapse – contributed to the US decision to create a safe area. Beginning in 2003, Ambassador .Galbraith was an informal advisor to the Kurdistan Regional Government in northern Iraq, supporting the Kurdistan delegation in the drafting process of the 2005 Iraqi Constitution. He is on the Board of Directors of the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, the research arm of the Council for a Livable World.

Ambassador Galbraith was an assistant professor of International Relations and Economics at Windham College in Putney, Vermont, from 1975 to 1978. Later, he was Professor of National Security Strategy at the National War College in 1999 and between 2001 and 2003. In addition to his books, Ambassador Galbraith has written extensively for a range of publications including The New York Review of Books, The New York Times, The Washington Post, and the Guardian.

Ambassador Galbraith earned a B.A. degree from Harvard College, an M.A. from Oxford University, and a J.D. from Georgetown University Law Center.

CALL TO ACTION:

  • If you have contacts in Europe, reach out to them and convey that they can’t rely on American leadership at this time; there is a need to step up from within, and American leadership has stepped back, possibly permanently.

THOMAS KENT

Consultant on propaganda and Russian affairs

Thomas Kent teaches and consults on Russian affairs, journalism, and the problems of propaganda and disinformation. President of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty until 2018, he now teaches at Columbia University and consults for governments, NGOs, and news organizations. He is the senior fellow for strategic communication of the American Foreign Policy Council and an associate fellow of Slovakia’s GLOBSEC. Previously, he was Moscow bureau chief for The Associated Press, chief of AP operations in Iran during the Islamic Revolution, head of AP’s international news coverage, and editor for standards and ethics. His first book, Striking Back: Overt and Covert Options to Combat Russian Disinformation, was published in 2020, and his second, “How Russia Loses,” in 2023. He is now working on a new book, on the propaganda lessons of the Ukraine war.

CALL TO ACTION:

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