By Jacki Swearingen and Vivian Lewis

Edited by Jim Harbison, Ryan O’Connell and Marilyn Go

With each election in recent years Florida has turned redder. In 2018 its voters elected one of the nation’s most conservative governors. However, this November’s outcome is a little less certain because of a recent decision by the Florida Supreme Court that allows a measure to ensure reproductive rights to be on the ballot this fall.

While President Joe Biden is still unlikely to garner Florida’s 30 electoral votes, a surge in voters determined to overturn one of the nation’s strictest abortion bans could benefit Democratic candidates further down the ballot. Although voter registrations for Democrats now trail those of Republicans by four percent, Democrats hope that they can convince the growing number of independents to vote for their candidates this November. Nonetheless, Democrats still face the possibility of reduced turnout because of strict voting laws Gov. Ron DeSantis and the Florida legislature put in place over the last three years.

Demographic Changes

Just as in Georgia and Arizona, demographic changes in Florida have been accompanied by increased calls from Republicans to stamp out voter fraud. The 2020 U.S Census showed that among Florida’s population of 22 million residents, non-Hispanic white residents decreased to 51 percent from 58 percent in 2010. Hispanics, the fastest growing sector, grew to 27 percent from 22 percent ten years earlier. Floridians who are non-Hispanic African Americans decreased to 14.5 percent from 15.2 percent, and Asian-Americans increased to 3 percent from 2.4 percent. 

Voter registration trends show that Florida is not easily pigeonholed into a red or blue niche, despite the outcomes of recent elections. More than one-third of the state’s registered voters are now non-white. The largest segment of Latinos remains Cuban-Americans who have overwhelmingly voted Republican since the first émigrés arrived in Miami in the 1960s. But Puerto Ricans, the second largest group, are more likely to vote Democratic. Indeed, the majority of Florida’s Hispanics are now registered as Democrats or independents, according to the James Madison Institute.

More people aged 60 to 69 moved to Florida than any other age cohort over the last decade. However, those aged 18 to 53 now outnumber Boomers in Florida. More and more of these younger voters are registering as “No Party Affiliation,” which helps to make independents the fastest growing group of Florida voters. Unaffiliated voters constitute 27 percent of registered voters while Republicans make up 37 percent and Democrats 33 percent.

Florida had some of the nation’s closest election outcomes in 2018 – a governor’s race DeSantis won by only 0.4 percent and a Senate race fellow Republican Rick Scott won by a mere 0.12 percent. However, the Covid pandemic contributed to a surge in Republican voters when DeSantis’s stand against lockdowns and other restrictions drew supporters from across the country. As DeSantis moved Florida further to the right on issues ranging from abortion to higher education, he also helped to bring into the GOP some long-time residents, particularly in North Florida who had regularly voted Democratic

Voter Suppression

Anxiety about the fragility of Republican victories as well as hopes of securing his party’s presidential nomination may have led Gov. Ron DeSantis to introduce strict voting control measures in 2021, which the Republican-led legislature speedily enacted. Law SB 90 limits where drop boxes for ballots can be placed, and it requires that the boxes be staffed during hours of operation. The law also restricts who can drop off a ballot for someone else, limiting this role to family members and caregivers, a change that voting rights advocates say places burdens on the disabled and seniors. Voters are also required to provide photo ID, a demand that the late Rep. John Lewis once likened to “a new poll tax.”

DeSantis and others claimed that they were tightening voting laws to combat voting fraud. However, a 2023 Brookings Institution report concluded:

“In Florida, there were nine cases of election fraud between the 2020 and 2022 elections but many of those involved individuals who were confused over whether or not they had the right to vote.”

Despite lack of evidence of any significant voter fraud, DeSantis signed a law in April 2022 that established a new state security office to investigate claims of voter fraud and arrest those charged with it. The new “election police force” ended up arresting only about 20 people in 2022 for casting illegal ballots. Nearly all those accused were shown to lack criminal intent and their cases were eventually dropped.

These arrests stirred fears in some voters that they might be apprehended for voting in error. Many of these citizens were former felons whose right to vote was restored in 2018 by an amendment to the Florida Constitution that 65 percent of voters approved. Nonetheless, DeSantis and the legislature have undermined the amendment by enacting a law that prohibits former felons from regaining their right to vote unless they have paid off fines imposed by the courts as part of their conviction. 

The Brennan Center and other voting rights groups challenged this law as unconstitutional, but the US Eleventh Circuit Court has allowed it to remain in place. In the 2024 election cycle an estimated 935,000 Floridians who have completed their sentences but not paid their fines will be unable to vote, according to the Sentencing Project.

Redistricting

DeSantis and the Florida legislature have also drawn fire for enacting a 2022 redistricting map for Congressional districts that voting and civil rights advocacy groups say is racially discriminatory. The reconfigured maps, they argued after the 2022 election, were designed to ensure the defeat of three-term Rep. Al Lawson, a Black Democrat, as well as to dilute the power of Black voters in other districts by moving many of them into overwhelmingly white and conservative districts. Their challenge wended its way through the courts until February of this year, when the Florida Supreme Court issued a one-sentence order saying that it would not speed up consideration of the case in time for the 2024 election. The contested maps will remain in place.

Voter Registration Obstacles

Law SB 7050, which allowed DeSantis to run for president without having to resign as governor, also builds on the changes to Florida election law enacted in 2021. The latest law imposes stringent new requirements on third-party voter registration organizations and quintuples the maximum fines these groups can incur. The measure bars non-citizens from handling or collecting voter applications as part of an effort by a third-party group to register voters. The new restraints have drawn the ire of Hispanic and Black voter advocacy groups, which argued that non-white voters often rely on their organizations to help them register.

Increasing the obstacles to mail-in voting, the new law mandates that voters can pick up a mail-in ballot only if they are unable to vote in person at an early voting location or at their assigned polling place on Election Day. Only family members can now request a mail-in ballot on behalf of a voter. 

Finally, critics of SB 7050 maintain that the new law will cause more registered voters to be purged from the rolls. Election officials can decide to remove a voter based on any “official” source rather than relying solely on ID sources specified in existing law. The new law also accelerates the process of removing voters from the rolls. 

Outraged by these new rules, the NAACP, the League of Women Voters, the ACLU and other voting advocacy groups filed two separate lawsuits. The League of Women Voters in Florida said in a statement released the day DeSantis signed the bill:

“The law, Senate Bill 7050, directly targets and drastically restricts the ability of nonpartisan civic engagement organizations, like the League of Women Voters of Florida, to engage with voters, violating their right to freedom of speech and association.”

On March 1 Obama-appointed Chief US District Judge Mark E. Walker struck down the provision in the law that prevents non-citizens from collecting or handling voter registration applications on behalf of third-party organizations. Judge Walker ruled that the prohibition violates the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment. However, Judge Walker’s decision only prohibits Florida’ secretary of state from enforcing that part of the law; he did not prevent the state’s attorney general from applying it. A second trial is now underway in Tallahassee before Judge Walker in which voting rights organizations seek to extend that prohibition on enforcement to the state attorney general as well.

Voter registration advocates who argue that SB 7050’s restrictions and penalties have already depressed 2024 voter registration drives continue to face challenges in overturning the measure. After Judge Walker’s ruling, Florida officials appealed to the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals in Tallahassee. That case is still pending.

Abortion Rights

In recent weeks the Supreme Court judges, all appointed by Republican governors, have played a pivotal role in the fight over abortion rights. The Florida State legislature passed several bills in 2023 that affect reproductive freedom, including the Heartbeat Protection Act that restricts access to abortion after six weeks’ gestation. The controversial legislation prompted a grassroots effort to mount a ballot initiative to amend the constitution, which garnered almost a million signatures. Proposed Amendment 4 to the Florida State constitution would preserve the right to abortion until 24 weeks. The Florida Supreme Court allowed the six-week ban to go into effect and approved the final language of the ballot initiative on April 1.

For the amendment to become part of the constitution, 60% of voters must approve it. Backers of the proposed amendment include Floridians Protecting Freedom, Planned Parenthood, League of Women Voters Florida and  the SEIU (Service Employees International Union). Florida Voice for the Unborn and Florida Council of Catholic Bishops are among opponents to the proposal. Of note, this amendment may not settle the issue as Florida Supreme Court justices have signaled a willingness to separately consider  the issue of fetal rights.Down-ballot primaries in August will also provide an opportunity for voters to learn the national and state candidates’ positions on a host of issues affecting reproductive freedom, including access to gender-affirming care, bathrooms and in vitro fertilization. 

Important Down Ballot Races

While the presidential election will be at the forefront this November, Florida has a number of down ballot races that could also affect the nation as well. Democrats will select a candidate in the August 20th Florida primary to challenge Republican Rick Scott, the former governor who was elected to the Senate in 2018. Scott is regarded as one of the most vulnerable Senate incumbents in this election cycle in part because of his stance on Social Security, Medicare and abortion. Twenty-eight House seats will also be up for grabs, including a new one awarded to Florida after the 2020 Census. Finally, Floridians will have the chance to vote on Amendment 3 to the state constitution, which would legalize the use of marijuana for adults 21 and older.

Get Out the Vote

What role can you play? Take part in this election by registering voters, phone banking and canvassing. Sign up as a poll worker. Help cure mail-in ballots to prevent a ballot from being discarded because of an error that could easily be fixed.

Florida lawyers can lend their skills to organizations like Florida Election Protection Coalition that aids voters who find their right to vote challenged at the polls.  Lawyers can also help assess accessibility at polls before voting occurs.

These organizations are also playing an active part in working for free and fair elections in Florida:

League of Women Voters of Florida “registers, empowers, and educates voters” as well as advocates for fair voting laws.

Common Cause Florida advocates for fair voting laws and helps voters with individual questions. Both Common Cause and America Votes helped cure Florida mail-in ballots in the 2020 election.

Black Voters Matter works in Florida and 24 other states to register voters and get them to the polls. Their “We Fight Back” bus tour is headed to Florida May 16 to May 20. 

Movement Voter Fund helps support Florida voter organizations that focus on Latinos. 

Equality Florida focuses on the LGBTQ community to register, educate, and transport voters to the polls.

The Andrew Goodman Foundation seeks to increase voter registration among college students and inspire them to get out the vote.

The Florida Justice Center helps former felons regain their right to vote.

Written by Marilyn Go (voting) and Vivian Lewis (reproductive freedom);

Edited by Jim Harbison and Jacki Swearingen

Although frequently described as a bellwether state, Michigan had also held the dubious reputation of being one of the most gerrymandered states in the country.[1] However, since 2018, Michigan has been in the forefront of protecting voter rights, as well as reproductive freedom. As discussed below, after voters established an independent redistricting commission, Michigan joined three other states in attempting to end partisan gerrymandering and create competitive elections with the drawing of fair maps.  

Demographics. Michigan has experienced slow growth since its heyday as the automotive capital of the United States after World War II. After the 2010 Census reported that the state population had decreased from the prior Census, Michigan 's population then grew by less than 2% the following decade. With a population of 10,077,331, as reported in the 2020 Census, Michigan's rank dropped from eighth to tenth most populous state in the country. The population of Michigan has been predominantly Non-Hispanic White, at 76.67%, but the number and percentage of this group has been declining the past few decades. In 2022, the percentage of NH Whites was 74%., while the percentage of Blacks was 14.1%, Hispanic 5.7%, and Asians 3.5%. 

However, Census classifications may be too general to capture the diversity within certain groups. Michigan is home to an estimated 400,000 to 490,000 Arabs, a widely varying estimate since Arabs are not separately counted by the Census Bureau. Arab voters are concentrated in major cities and have a voice in Michigan politics.  In 2018, Rashida Tlaib, from the Detroit area, became the first Palestinian American elected to Congress and in 2021, voters in Dearborn, which is over 40% Arab, elected their first Arab (Lebanese American) mayor. In Michigan’s recent Presidential primary election, over 100,000 voters selected "Uncommitted" to express opposition to President Biden's handling of the Gaza conflict.

Independent Redistricting Commission.  In 2018, Michigan voters passed, with over 61% of the vote, a ballot initiative approving a constitutional amendment establishing an independent redistricting commission to redraw congressional and state legislative districts. The 13-member Michigan Independent Citizens Redistricting (MICR) Commission that was created consists of four Democrats, four Republicans and five independents randomly selected from 9,300 voters who had applied.[2] 

After completion of the 2020 United States Census, the MICR released draft-proposed Congressional maps in December 2021, which the MICR approved with a vote of 8 to 5 and, later, added approved state legislative maps. The Congressional maps drawn by the MICR were hailed by many as being fair, creating more competition, and no longer heavily favoring Republicans. The Republicans, who had controlled redistricting after the 2010 Census, had previously drawn maps with "impregnable majorities”in the Legislature. Michigan is one of four states to create a truly nonpartisan independent commission to draw Congressional maps in 2022. California, Arizona, and Colorado are the others. 

Federal Court Challenge to Maps Drawn. However, shortly after release of the maps, a group of Black Michigan voters filed a federal lawsuit in 2022 claiming that the Congressional maps violated both the U.S. Constitution and the Voting Rights Act. The plaintiffs asserted that  various legislative districts in and around Detroit were racial gerrymanders and diluted Black voting strength by eliminating or greatly diminishing the majority-minority districts there.  

On December 21, 2023, the three-judge court that was convened to hear the case agreed with the plaintiffs. The Court found that the record "overwhelmingly" showed that the MICR drew the "plaintiffs’ districts predominantly on the basis of race" in a manner which violated the plaintiffs' rights under the Equal Protection Clause of the U.S. Constitution. The three-judge court similarly found in a related case that maps for more than a dozen Michigan state House and Senate districts around metro Detroit violated the U.S. Constitution by splitting Detroit into districts combined with whiter suburbs. The court enjoined the use of the districts as drawn and directed that new maps be drawn, released for public comment, and submitted to the Court for review by March 1, 2024.[3] The state's application for stay was denied by the Supreme Court Justice Kavanaugh on January 22, 2024. 

New maps have been submitted in accordance with the schedule set and are now before the court and its experts for review.   

The need to have maps redrawn is troubling. As recounted in the December 21 decision, the Commissioners simply failed to understand the requirements of the Voting Rights Act. That  should not have happened and could have easily been avoided.In addition, two of the Commissioners resigned prior to completion of their duties, because they lived outside of the state; this is a straightforward matter that should have been disclosed and uncovered prior to the time they assumed their positions. 

Michigan’s experience shows how an independent nonpartisan redistricting commission can end partisan gerrymandering and create competitive electoral races by drawing fair maps.  However, the pending lawsuits over redistricting illustrate the complexities of redistricting and the many different interests that must be considered in drawing maps. Concerns over partisan gerrymandering cannot supersede legal obligations under the Voting Rights Act, which ensures that historically politically disadvantaged groups have representation. 

Other Voting Legislation. This past November, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer signed into law a series of election bills to increase voter participation and provide for broader access. One measure to expand voter registration included expansion of automatic voter registration to incarcerated people after their release. Michigan had already previously allowed people with felony convictions to regain their voting rights once they're out of prison.

The state legislature also passed bills designed to prevent "chaos," particularly in the event of disputed elections. Among other things, these laws criminalize poll worker intimidation, regulate political ads that use artificial intelligence and tighten the election certification process that former President Trump tried to disrupt following his 2020 election loss.

Political Landscape of Michigan. Michigan is considered a competitive battleground state in Presidential elections.  The Democratic Presidential candidate has, since 1992, prevailed in Michigan, except in 2016 when former President Trump won with a small margin of 11,000.  Although President Biden defeated Trump in 2020 by a larger margin, he prevailed by making inroads in the suburbs, adding to his advantage in the cities, which are traditional Democratic strongholds.

As a result of a less than two percent increase in population since the 2010 census, as compared to the average 8% increase nationwide, Michigan lost one seat in Congress and will now have 13 Representatives. This was the fifth consecutive time that Michigan lost a House seat following a Census, a change accompanying the shrinkage of the automotive industry there and decentralization in the manufacture of automotive accessories and parts.

In 2022, voters elected seven Democrats and six Republicans to the U.S. House of Representatives. However, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) is now running for the Senate seat vacated by Debbie Stabenow, a Democrat who is retiring. Until redistricting maps are finalized, it is not yet clear which Representatives are running for re-election in what districts. 

Until the use of the newly drawn maps in 2022, the Michigan state legislature was dominated by Republicans who were in control for over a decade and effectively maintained control through redistricting.  Like the prior Congressional map drawn before creation of the MICR, the state legislative maps combined urban areas, which tended to vote Democratic, with surrounding suburbs, which tended to be more Republican.  The 2022 electoral districts, which were based on maps drawn following  criteria in the 2018 amendment to the State Constitution, the number of state Representatives who were Democrats increased from 53 to 56, while the number of Republican Representatives dropped from 56 to 54.  Due to unfilled vacancies resulting from retirement or death, the number of representatives is currently tied at 54 to 54.  The Democrats currently hold a small majority in the state Senate.

Reproductive Freedom.  Reproductive freedom has been a potent issue in Michigan where voters approved a state constitutional amendment to ensure abortion rights in 2022.  The amendment included all matters related to pregnancy, including, but not limited to, pregnancy, abortion care, contraception, and infertility.  Governor Whitmer, whose support of the amendment helped her win re-election, subsequently signed a series of legislation protecting reproductive freedom, including legislation that repeals a law requiring women to have a separate insurance rider to pay for abortion, as well as laws that imposed onerous and unnecessary non-medical requirements on abortion clinics designed to force them to close, raising costs for patients, and restricting access to abortion.  She has also issued an executive order protecting Michigan healthcare workers from extradition for providing IVF services or pregnancy terminations.

Saying voting rights are “how we secure reprod­uctive rights,” Whitmer noted that some in Congress favor a national abortion ban and urged voters to stay engaged for the upcoming election. There is a congressional proposal, the Life at Conception Act , with 125 cosponsors that would ban nearly all abortions. Although IVF is not mentioned, the proposed legislation uses an argument similar to that of the Alabama Supreme Court, which conferred personhood on frozen embryos. With IVF emerging as another reproductive freedom issue, Michigan politicians of both parties have been working to refine their positions.

Although the filing deadline for candidates in Michigan’s August primary election is April 23, polling already suggests that reproductive freedom will continue to be an issue. With months to go, Michigan voters who care about reproductive freedom have plenty of time to learn more.

Volunteering Opportunites. We encourage all, particularly those living in Michigan, to support or volunteer at organizations that will assist voters in Michigan, including the following:

• Promote the Vote – coalition of Michigan-based groups helping voters in historically disenfranchised communities to vote.  https://www.michiganvoting.org/
• Voting Access For All – coalition of organizations focused on helping people to vote, particularly those who had been incarcerated.  https://votingaccessforall.org/
• Michigan Fair Elections – coalition of organizations and groups working to support free and fair elections in Michigan.   https://www.mifairelections.org/
• NextGen America – Michigan’s branch of the nation’s largest youth voter organization working to register and mobilize young people to vote. https://organizing.nextgenamerica.org/state/michigan/ 

[1]See, e.g., Laura Royden and Michael Li, "Extreme Maps,"https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/extreme-maps.

[2]https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/detroit/2021/03/28/how-michigans-redistricting-process-work-and-how-get-involved/4700107001/.  

[3]  See Agee v. Benson,https://www.democracydocket.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/W.D.-Mich.-22-cv-00272-dckt-000131_000-filed-2023-12-21.pdf (Dec. 21, 2023 decision).

By Ryan O’Connell

Edited by Marilyn Go, Jim Harbison, and Jacki Swearingen

Updated 2.6.2024

With its robust economy, Georgia has grown rapidly, attracting a large influx of new residents from other states. These waves of in-migration have profoundly changed the state’s political make-up over the last two decades because most of the newcomers are African American.  Many of them hold college degrees and are affluent; the largest group has moved from New York State.  Georgia’s Latino and Asian-American communities, while smaller, have also grown significantly.

All three groups lean heavily Democratic, and their growth has turned Georgia from deep red into a battleground state. The number of eligible voters in Georgia has jumped 30% over the last 20 years, and Black Americans represent half of that increase. Meanwhile, whites constitute only about a quarter of new voters.

Latinos and Asian Americans represent a relatively small slice of the Georgia electorate. However, their numbers have increased significantly; they account for 14% and 8%, respectively, of the growth in the voters since 2010. Hispanic voters increased by 235% and Asians by 245%, compared to 59% for Blacks and 12% for whites. (Black Latino and Asian Americans have been key to Georgia's registered voter growth since 2016).

Source: Pew Research

These shifts have radically altered the state’s demographic and political mix. In 2000, white voters overwhelmingly dominated the electorate, representing almost 70% of potential voters.  However, over the next 20 years, white voters’ share dropped by 11 points to 58%. Black Americans’ share rose five points, to 33% of all eligible voters. Hispanics and Asian Americans’ shares increased more modestly, to 5% and 3% of eligible voters. 

In total, the three minority groups rose to over 40% from about 30% of eligible voters over those ten years.  While white voters grew modestly, to 4.4 million from 4 million, minority voters shot up to 3 million from 1.7 million. This trend has created the potential for a significant shift in the balance of power between whites and minorities in Georgia.   

Source: Pew Research

Voters in the metropolitan Atlanta region, which is mostly Democratic, now represent 54% of the state’s voters. Other metropolitan areas such as Savannah, Macon, and Augusta also lean Democratic.

In 2018, Stacey Abrams, a Black woman, came very close to winning the race for governor.  Then, in 2020, a political earthquake shook Georgia, as a Democratic Presidential candidate won the state for the first time since Bill Clinton carried it in 1992.  Georgians also elected two Democrats as Senators, one of whom, Raphael Warnock, is African American.

A History of Gerrymandering and Voter Suppression

On the surface, Georgia, a state with a long history of voter suppression, seemed to embrace multiracial democracy at last.  But the reality is far different; old habits die hard.

Georgia is a highly gerrymandered state, and state officials continue to use numerous techniques to diminish the power of minority voters. The state is probably balanced between Democratic and Republican voters at this point. Nonetheless, Republicans hold about 60% of state Senate seats and state House seats. Georgia’s Congressional delegation is also lop-sided, with nine Republican-controlled districts and only five Democratic-controlled ones. 

Federal Judge Ordered Georgia to Redraw Maps

In October 2023, a federal district judge in Atlanta ruled that Georgia’s electoral maps violated the Voting Rights Act of 1965 by diluting the power of Black voters. Judge Steve C. Jones of the Northern District of Georgia ordered the state legislature to redraw the maps for state and Congressional districts. The legislature did so at a special session beginning November 29, and Governor Kemp signed new electoral maps into law on December 8.

The new maps created an additional majority Black congressional district, as the judge ordered.  However, Democrats and Black voters who had brought this case (as well as two other lawsuits challenging State Senate and House maps) objected to the new maps. They criticized the congressional maps for shifting Lucy McBath, a Democratic congresswoman, into a mostly Republican district. Nonetheless, Judge Jones ruled that the redrawn maps complied with the Voting Rights Act and his previous order that an additional majority Black district be created (Georgia Republicans Add Majority-Black Congressional District at Expense of McBath). 

Judge Jones observed that “redistricting decisions by a legislative body with an eye toward securing partisan advantage do not alone ’violate’ the Voting Rights Act. On this issue, Judge Jones cited the Supreme Court’s ruling in Rucho v. Common Cause (2019) that disputes regarding possible partisan gerrymandering (as opposed to racially based gerrymandering) are not within the purview of Federal courts.

Under the revised maps, Republicans are likely to maintain their 9-5 majority in Georgia’s congressional delegation.

African Americans are severely under-represented in government on the county level. The deck is stacked against them because of electoral practices and the legislature’s “unprecedented efforts to intervene in local redistricting,” according to the Brennan Center for Law and Justice at New York University (Local Lockout in Georgia).   

Large Voter Purges                                            

While Brian Kemp was Secretary of State and preparing to run for Governor, he purged 1.4 million citizens from Georgia’s voter rolls over the course of eight years.  In 2017 alone, Kemp removed 750,000 people from the rolls, knowing that Stacey Abrams would run against him for Governor in 2018.

Some of the purges may have been routine, but many of those disproportionately eliminated were Black voters. The purges may have been an important factor in the gubernatorial race, which Abrams lost by only 55,000 votes. 

New Voting Law Targets Minorities, City Dwellers

The 2020 election triggered a strong counter-reaction in Georgia. In March 2021, the Republican-dominated state legislature pushed through a bill in record time that was designed to suppress the votes of minorities and urban Democrats. The Republicans called the bill, SB 202, an “election integrity law”, even though state audits determined there was virtually no fraud in the 2020 election.

The new law made registering to vote and voting more difficult, particularly for minorities and city-dwellers, by:    

• Imposing tougher voter ID requirements
• Restricting the availability of mail-in ballots and shortening the deadlines for submitting them
• Reducing the number of drop-off boxes for mail-in ballots in Atlanta and other cities
• Cutting back the hours for using drop-off boxes
• Prohibiting the use of mobile voting buses
• Allowing private citizens to file an unlimited number of challenges to voters’ registrations
• Banning anyone except poll workers from handing out water and food to voters standing in line

Why the last prohibition? Voters in Atlanta, especially in mostly Black neighborhoods, often must wait for hours in the blazing Georgia heat to cast their votes.  The legislature clearly intended to discourage these minority citizens from casting their votes. 

Before the 2020 election, Georgia’s Secretary of State supervised most aspects of elections, including tabulating votes and resolving disputes about voting.  Secretary Brad Raffensberger, a Republican, discharged his duties honorably and refused Donald Trump’s request that he “find 11,720 votes” to swing the election in Trump’s favor. 

Frivolous Challenges to Voters’ Registrations

However, In SB 202, the legislature drastically cut back the Secretary’s authority over elections and created opportunities for other elected officials to intervene in election disputes. The Secretary of State is no longer the head of the State Election Commission.  Instead, Georgia legislators appoint the chair of the commission.  These changes could allow interference by partisan actors in contested elections.  

Activists have abused their new power to challenge voter registrations under SB 202.  A handful of conservative activists--six--filed a total of 100,000 challenges in 2022, according to ProPublica (Close to 100,000 Voter Registrations Were Challenged in Georgia). Many of the challenges were frivolous and poorly researched. 

These challenges have been used to harass and intimidate voters.  Furthermore, election officials have complained that they must spend a great deal of time reviewing the challenges, which often contain factual errors or focus on minor deficiencies. 

New Law May Facilitate Challenging Voters

In February the state legislature passed Senate Bill 189, which defines several probable causes for removing voters from the rolls: death, voting or registering in another jurisdiction, a tax exemption indicating a primary residence elsewhere, or a non-residential address.  The bill has gone to Gov. Brian Kemp for his signature or veto.  

Although some of these measures my seem reasonable on the surface, the American Civil Liberties Union has threatened to sue the governor if he signs the bill.  The ACLU and other voting rights organizations have attacked SB 189 on the grounds that the law will make it easier to file challenges to voters, by allowing various deficiencies --the “probable causes” listed above--to disqualify voters.   They also object to a provision that allows challenges to rely partly on a voter’s presence on the National Address Change (NAC) database, which the U.S. Postal Service maintains.  

These critics argue that the NAC database is often inaccurate, and they note that the individuals who mounted the 100,000 challenges frequently rely on the database to support their challenges.   In addition, under the new law homeless people must use the county voter registration office as their address instead of where they live. Opponents say that could make it harder for homeless citizens to cast ballots because their registered polling place might be far away.

Republicans argue that the law is needed to deter voter fraud, even though there is no evidence of any significant problems in Georgia.  

One provision might deter some challenges.  Under SB 189, a voter’s presence on the NAC database, by itself, is “insufficient cause” unless there is “additional evidence” that a voter’s address has changed. 

What Can You Do? 

Whether you live in Georgia or not, you can help to make Georgia’s elections fairer, despite the obstacles created by the legislatures.  

First, if Gov. Kemp has not yet signed SB 189 into law, you can write him asking him to veto the measure.  It’s a long shot, but worth trying. 

Helping Georgians to register to vote and monitoring polls are two particularly important ways to help.    

The primaries for state and Congressional races will take place on May 21. Early voting for those races will begin on April 29 and last until May 17.  

You can volunteer to monitor polls, monitor social media, and contact voters who need information and support.  You can fill the last two roles on a remote basis.  Get in touch with Common Cause Georgia (https://www.commoncause.org/georgia; 404-524-4598). 

If you are a lawyer or a paralegal, you can volunteer for Election Protection (https://866ourvote.org/volunteer), which provides advice to citizens who want to register to vote or who may encounter problems when they try to vote.  If you have a relative in law school, ask him or her to volunteer.  You can work from your office or home. EP provides training and materials on each state’s election laws and procedures. 

You can also volunteer to serve as a poll monitor with EP, if you are not a lawyer. 

Election Protection operates under the auspices of the Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law, a civil rights organization, and it has about 100 partners, including Common Cause. 

The Brennan Center has outlined several steps that Georgia and other swing states should take to ensure that their 2024 elections are conducted fairly and smoothly (Are Swing States Ready for 2024).

Written by Jim Harbison; edited by Marilyn Go, Ryan O’Connell and Jacki Swearingen 

In our recent articles, we have focused on voting rights issues in the battleground states that may be key to the outcome of the 2024 Presidential Election.  We have covered developments, some of them adverse, in Georgia, Ohio, North Carolina, and Virginia. This month we turn to Pennsylvania, where the outlook for fair elections is more promising. 

Courts have often played an important role in the protection of voting rights and fair elections.  As a result, judicial elections have become significant contests in the struggle over voting rights. In the November 2022 elections, when Dan McCaffery won his race to become a Pennsylvania State Supreme Court Justice, the Court swung to a 5-2 Democratic majority. Had the Republican candidate won, the Democratic majority would have remained 4-3.  Given the stakes, out-of-state political groups funneled large amounts of money into the race. 

Election-reform advocates hailed McCaffery’s election as an important defense against potential gerrymandering and limitations of voters’ rights in the state.  To understand why, we need to review some of the history of gerrymandering in Pennsylvania, a state that is split nearly 50-50 between Republicans and Democrats.  The Pennsylvania Supreme Court has blocked repeated efforts to create highly gerrymandered electoral districts. 

In the 2010 elections, a small group within the Republican Party launched Project REDMAP (short for Redistricting Majority Project), a targeted effort to fund key state election races across the country and gain control of state legislatures.  Their data-driven, computerized approach succeeded, and it shifted the balance of power in numerous state governments, including Pennsylvania. 

The Republicans won the Pennsylvania state House (previously Democratic-controlled) and the governorship, while retaining their majority in the state Senate.  With this “trifecta” control, the Legislature drew redistricting maps in 2011 following the 2010 census that were extremely favorable to Republicans.  One of the districts drawn was called one of the most gerrymandered districts in the country and was characterized as Goofy kicking Donald Duck.  https://www.cbsnews.com/news/drawing-the-lines-on-gerrymandering/.  The Republican governor, unsurprisingly, did not veto the maps.

The maps were used until a lawsuit was filed claiming the maps were gerrymandered.  The case reached the Pennsylvania Supreme Court in late 2017.  On January 22, 2018, the Court held that the maps drawn “clearly, plainly and palpably violate the Constitution of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania” as partisan gerrymandering.  The Court ordered that new maps be submitted to it by February 15, 2018.  In a 138-page order issued on February 7, 2018, the Supreme Court provided detailed criteria for the Legislature to use in redrawing maps.  

Despite the Court’s directions, the Legislature failed to draw fairer maps in a timely fashion.  The Court then selected an outside expert to create more balanced maps, which were implemented.  In the 2018 general election, the number of Republicans and Democrats in the state’s Congressional delegation, which had been a lopsided 13-5 in the last three general elections, swung to an even 9-9.  The new, balanced delegation was much more in line with the even split among Pennsylvanian voters.

Dissatisfied with the State Supreme Court rulings, Republican lawmakers then attempted to change the system for electing justices.  Previously, candidates ran on a statewide basis. However, the legislators sought to have judges elected from specific voting districts, even though justices on the Supreme Court have the duty to interpret the law for the entire state and do not represent a particular district’s constituents. Observers noted that some of the proposed districts were heavily Republican and suggested the intent was to change the Court’s composition.

Such a change is only possible by amending the PA State Constitution, which would require making it a state ballot initiative.  To do so requires passage of such a measure by a 66.67% legislative majority or passage  in two successive legislative sessions by a 50% majority.  The bill was passed by the PA House and Senate by 50.5% and 52.0%, respectively, in the 2019-20 session, but failed to garner enough of a majority to allow it to come up for a vote in the 2021-22 session, in which the Democrats controlled the House, and the measure died.   

In August 2023, the State Supreme Court issued a significant decision upholding Pennsylvania's expansion of mail-in voting in 2019, affirming another measure in favor of voting rights.

After the 2020 census results, in a required redistricting made more substantial because the number of Pennsylvania’s Congressional seats had declined from 18 to 17, the Legislature again revised the electoral maps.  The Republican-controlled House and Senate created a highly gerrymandered set of districts.  However, this time the governor, a Democrat, vetoed the legislation to implement the maps.  This impasse brought the dispute over redistricting before the Pennsylvania Supreme Court again. 

The Court ruled that the districts were overly partisan and appointed an expert to create fairer ones.  In the 2022 election, with these new district lines in place, the Congressional allocation for Pennsylvania remained balanced, with eight Republicans and nine Democrats.  Furthermore, the State legislature shifted to a Democratic majority, but by just one representative. Meanwhile, the Senate remained in Republican hands. 

Although election reforms to expand voter access and protect the integrity of local election officials may be too slow in coming for some, this past September the progressive Democratic governor, Josh Shapiro, simplified automatic voter registration for Pennsylvanians when they obtain or renew a driver's license. 

So, all in all, in Pennsylvania the prospects look encouraging for taking a balanced approach to protecting the right to vote and not instituting some of the new restrictions adopted in other battleground states like Wisconsin and Georgia.  In the short term, courts have ensured that the districting process in Pennsylvania is fair. 

Nonetheless, in the long run, having a truly independent commission draw the district lines, following the California approach, would be far superior, as we discuss in our Gerrymandering Primer. Common Cause gives Pennsylvania’s redistricting process a C+ rating because of this structural flaw in the system.

What is essential for classmates who reside in Pennsylvania is to remain vigilant and follow developments in the run-up to the 2024 election. There are still many politicians who, if left unchecked, would seek to enact legislation limiting voting access. 

As you may remember, Pennsylvania was one of the states where there were sustained attempts to invalidate the 2020 Presidential election results through political maneuvers and frivolous lawsuits. The Brennan Center for Law and Justice at New York University provides a list  and in-depth analysis of current challenges to election rights in the state.

Watch for developments in two key areas: 

• Decisions on whether ballot curing is allowed, which is still being contested in the courts.  One particular case to follow is the ruling by U.S. District Judge Susan Paradise Baxter in  November 2023, which held that mailed-in ballots that arrive on time, but in envelopes without dates handwritten by Pennsylvania voters, should be counted. The decision is likely to be appealed, probably all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court.
• Legislative attempts to speed up the counting of absentee ballots, such as by allowing outer envelopes that can be opened ahead of election day.  One such legislative proposal failed to pass in April.    

As you may recall, Pennsylvania’s slow ballot counting created a great deal of confusion in the 2020 election, which election deniers seized upon as support for their unfounded claims of fraud.   

 Pennsylvania is truly an example of our democracy at risk, and we must make sure that the right to vote, particularly the use of mail-in ballots, is protected.

Edited by Ryan O’Connell ‘73, Jim Harbison ‘73, and Marilyn Go ‘73

As anxieties grow for the 2024 Presidential elections, Virginia voters are preparing for a state legislature election next month observers have deemed a “bellwether.” The outcome not only will determine who controls Virginia’s House of Delegates and Senate, but also the fate of the state’s policies on abortion, gun control and climate change. In addition, winning Republican majorities in both chambers could jump-start the presidential campaign of Governor Glen Youngkin as a possible GOP alternative to Donald Trump.

This November all 140 seats in Virginia’s legislature will be up for grabs. The Republicans have a four-seat majority in the House of Delegates as well as the governorship. Democrats, who won the Senate in 2019, hold a two-seat majority that has allowed them to stop Republican efforts to weaken abortion rights and impose restrictions on some voters. This past August the Democrats’ majority in the Senate also enabled them to halt Youngkin’s proposal that would reduce taxes on corporations and high income individuals.

If the Democrats lose the Virginia Senate this fall, Republicans will have a “trifecta” that will allow them to limit or even ban abortion rights and to overturn the gun control measures like background checks that Democrats established in 2020. In contrast, winning both the upper chamber and the House of Delegates would give Democrats new leverage in budget negotiations with the state’s Republican governor.

If Republicans retake the Senate and hold onto the House of Delegates, Youngkin and GOP legislators would have the ability to enact previously unsuccessful legislation to oppose Medicaid expansion, to allow religious organizations to deny services to LGBTQ citizens, and to eliminate strict emissions controls. Republicans need to win only one additional seat to tie the Senate, an outcome that would permit the Republican lieutenant governor to cast a tie breaker vote.

The struggle for the Virginia legislature is likely to come down to a handful of toss up districts, most of them in the suburbs surrounding Washington D.C. as well as in Richmond and Hampton Roads. Five races in the Senate and nine in the House of Delegates could affect the fate of key issues like abortion on a national as well as state level.

Ten senators and 17 delegates have retired, due largely to a radical reshaping of the electoral districts that was launched by a bipartisan election commission in 2021 to counter partisan gerrymandering. When the maps put forth by that panel failed to win the legislature’s approval, a requirement, the redistricting map was sent to the state Supreme Court for review. The judges appointed an independent special master, who drew up new districts that pitted several incumbents against each other.

Just as in recent contests in Wisconsin and Kansas, Democrats are focusing on what the loss of both Virginia chambers would mean for abortion rights. Virginia currently permits abortion through about 26 weeks, the longest period in any southern state since the overturning of Roe v. Wade.

Gov. Youngkin has said that legislating a prohibition on abortion at 15 weeks, with exceptions only for rape, incest, and the life of the mother, is a priority for him. Democrats fear that if they lose the Senate, he and Republican legislators will impose a more severe ban that resembles those of Texas and Florida. In fact, Youngkin was caught on tape during his 2021 campaign telling a supporter that he favored a stricter ban but needed to moderate his comments to win independent voters. 

Democrats also point to Youngkin’s actions to curb voting rights as an indication that the Republicans would impose even more restrictions if they won both chambers of the legislature. In April the governor reversed Virginia’s policy of automatically restoring voting rights to former felons after they completed their sentences. Former felons can now only have that right restored by the governor’s authorization. And in May, Youngkin’s chief election officer removed Virginia from a multi-state data system designed to keep voter rolls up to date, making it harder for election officials to reach out to eligible voters and encourage them to register.

Educational issues loom large in next month’s election as well. In July Youngkin put in place a K-12 transgender policy that requires, among other measures, that students be addressed with the pronoun for the sex assigned to them at birth. Republican legislators have tried previously to ban transgender athletes and to prohibit the teaching of “inherently divisive subjects.” They have also pushed to allow families to use public funds to pay for private education.

Fueled by rising prejudice nationwide against LGBTQ people and parental dissatisfaction over pandemic mandates like school closings, school board meetings in northern Virginia counties like Loudon and Fairfax have grown contentious in recent years. Parents on the right also railed against history curricula that included slavery and the civil rights movement being taught in public schools, erroneously labeling books or lessons with those subjects “critical race theory.” With school board seats across the state on the ballot this November, these fights are likely to shape legislative contests as well.

County contests for sheriffs, commonwealth’s attorneys, and superintendents touch on local issues like development, crime, and the rise of massive data centers that increase the use of fossil fuels and often leave local residents burdened with the financial and environmental costs. With Virginia’s five percent increase in crime during 2022, Republican candidates are calling to repeal Democratic changes in policing, like controls on racial profiling.

Recognizing the connection between these local contests and larger ones, both parties have worked to recruit candidates who can emerge as state and national leaders. Right-wing factions of the GOP have focused particularly on filling slots on school boards, a tactic that brings ideological struggles down to the grassroots level. Democratic activists have complained they lag behind in this latest fight because they were slow to catch on, just as they were in 2010 when Republicans began to concentrate on taking control of state legislatures.

With growing concerns that this upcoming election could determine the direction of Virginia’s policies and politics for years to come, both sides have stepped up fundraising efforts to make this potentially the most expensive midterm contest in the state’s history. Democratic candidates for both the House of Delegates and the Senate lead their Republican candidates in donations by a combined $15 million to $10.6 million for the period between July 1 and August 31. Republican hopes have been shored up by large sums coming from Youngkin’s Spirit of Virginia PAC, which took in $3.8 million during that period, with $1 million coming from Florida billionaire Thomas Peterffy.

The massive and small contributions to both parties will fund the canvassing and ad buys designed to drive the voter turnout key to victory in this election. Early voting began on September 22 and will run through 5:00 PM on November 4. Like his Democratic rivals, Youngkin is urging GOP voters to cast their ballots in advance at an early voting location. 

Registered voters in Virginia can also request a mail-in ballot before 5:00 pm on October 27. They can check their registration, locate their polling place and request an absentee ballot.

All voters need a valid driver’s license or other ID in order to vote in this critical election.

It is not too late to help register voters and facilitate voting for all citizens, regardless of political affiliation. Residents of Virginia as well as other states and the District of Columbia can volunteer for or contribute to one of the following non-partisan organizations:

The League of Women Voters protects and expands voting rights through advocacy and education. 

Virginia Legislative Elections Guide provides a nonpartisan guide to key votes. 

Virginia Civic Engagement Table supports non-profit organizations that assist at polling sites and provide voter protection hotlines. 

WorkElections recruits poll workers. 

VoteRiders offers Voter ID assistance. 

BigTentUSA gets out the vote through phone banking, post card writing, registration drives. 

BlackVotersMatter increases the voter engagement of Black citizens. Black Voters Matter is this year’s Justice Aid 2023 Grantee Partner. 

Rideshare2Vote increases voter turnout through providing transportation. 

See also other organizations listed in the Voting Activism Opportunities posted on the ClassAct HR '73 website.

By Marilyn Go, Jim Harbison, and Jacki Swearingen

Summer has not officially ended, so there is still time to squeeze in some reading about voting rights. This article contains a compilation of articles and other writings concerning redistricting, voting and related issues that may provide insight into the current and continuing challenges to protecting our democracy.

        This past June, the Supreme Court issued two significant decisions concerning voting rights and the protections under federal and state law. In Allen v. Milligan, the Court reaffirmed the  framework of the Voting Rights Act in holding that the Congressional map drawn by the Alabama legislature violated the Act. In Moore v. Harper, the court affirmed the authority of the North Carolina State Supreme Court to protect against gerrymandering in invalidating the "independent state legislature" theory that the legislature had the sole power to impose measures suppressing voter rights. The full impact of these decisions is yet to be determined.

•   The Significance of Allen v. Milligan, from the lawyer who argued the case, (6/23/2023)

•  Thanks to the Supreme Court, Elections Are Safe from at Least One Threat, (6/29/2023)

        Notwithstanding the Supreme Court directive in Allen and a prior decision in 2022, Alabama refused to comply when redrawing its maps.  Ultimately, a three-judge federal panel, perturbed by the open defiance of the state, appointed a special master to draw maps.  See Singleton v. Allen:

        •   Alabama Defies the Voting Rights Act, (noting that Louisiana was also flouting a court order to redraw maps).

•  Federal Court Blocks Alabama Congressional Map After Republican Lawmakers Defied U.S. Supreme Ct.

        In Florida, discriminatory redistricting maps were put into place by Governor DeSantis, who refused to adopt Congressional maps drawn by the state legislature controlled by Republican majorities. A state court judge recently found after a hearing that those maps violated the State Constitution by diminishing the ability of Black Floridians to elect a representative of their choice. Alabama and Florida have filed appeals, thereby preventing implementation of properly drawn maps before the next election. 

•   Alabama again appeals to S.Ct.

        •   Florida appeals a judge's ruling that struck down redistricting map pushed by DeSantis, (9/7/2023)

Challenges to redistricting maps have been brought in a number of other states. For example, in Georgia, there is a trial (ongoing as of September 11) involving claims that Congressional maps drawn violate the Voting Rights Act. In Wisconsin, a lawsuit was brought raising claims that redistricting maps, which include a number of districts that are not contiguous, are the product of extreme partisan redistricting.  That case has recently been countered with efforts to stop Justice Janet Protasiewicz (D), who was elected to the Wisconsin Supreme Court this past  April by over 11% of the vote, from sitting and considering this case. 

•   Georgia redistricting trial opens with debate over federal requirements for Black representation.

  •   Wisconsin Republicans’ Nuclear Option, (9/12/2023).

  •   Fighting Partisan Gerrymandering in Wisconsin, (8/2/2023) 

        In addition, lawsuits have recently been brought challenging the validity and application of voting laws. For example, in Mississippi, a federal judge enjoined implementation of a new state law restricting the assistance that individuals and organizations could provide to Mississippi voters needing assistance due to disability, blindness, or inability to read or write. In July, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit struck down Mississippi's lifetime voting ban on persons convicted of felonies, including crimes having nothing to do with voting or governance, such as theft of timber or writing a bad check for $100. This law has prevented 10% of the voting population in Mississippi from voting and is similar to laws in 11 other states.

•   Federal Court Blocks Implementation of Mississippi’s New Voting Law

• Court Strikes Down Mississippi’s Lifetime Felony Voting Ban

In Florida, a federal court enjoined a recently enacted law that imposed a $50,000 fine on organizations who have non-citizens, including lawful permanent residents, assist in collecting or handling voter registration forms on the organization’s behalf.

•   Federal Court Blocks Florida Law that Targets Voter Registration, Civic Engagement, and Political Speech.

In North Carolina, the legislature passed an omnibus voting bill in June which, inter alia, that  limits the time period for sending mail-in ballots while increasing the time to challenge such ballots. The law also gives poll watchers the ability to move to listen to conversations between voters and election officials. On August 24, 2023, Governor Roy Cooper vetoed the bill, but the veto could be overridden by the legislature which is controlled by a supermajority of Republicans. 

•   Unpacking North Carolina Republicans’ Voter Suppression Bill S.B. 747

Private individuals have also engaged in efforts to suppress the right to vote of others, such as challenges brought in Georgia to almost 100,000 voter registrations. Similarly, lawsuits have been brought to decertify election results, including a recently dismissed lawsuit brought by voters who had unsuccessfully sought to decertify certain prior election results in Arizona.

•   Close to 100,000 Voter Registrations Were Challenged in Georgia — Almost All by Just Six Right-Wing Activists.

•   Deja Vu: After Arizona Supreme Court Dismisses Fringe Lawsuit, Similar Case Seeks To Decertify 2022 Election Results.  

Last, there are two upcoming elections on September 19 that may affect control of the House of Representatives in two states:  (1) a special election in Pennsylvania to replace former State Representative Sara Innamorato (D) whose resignation in July resulted in the Democrats losing a slim majority of one seat; and  (2) a special election in New Hampshire to replace Benjamin T. Bartlett IV (R), who resigned in April from the New Hampshire House of Representatives where Republicans currently hold a one-seat majority.

•   https://www.penncapital-star.com/campaigns-elections/for-third-time-this-year-special-election-will-decide-control-of-pa-house/

•   https://apnews.com/article/pennsylvania-house-democratic-majority-105c10e46ffb57c644e1818d9c30f004

•   https://news.ballotpedia.org/2023/08/24/hal-rafter-d-and-james-guzofski-r-are-running-in-the-sept-19-special-election-for-new-hampshire-house-district-rockingham-1/

CITATIONS

Further information about both elections and how to vote in these states is available from the League of Women Voters in Pennsylvania, athttps://lwvpgh.org/special, or in New Hampshire at https://lwvnh.org/events/. We encourage classmates who live in the states holding elections this year not only to exercise their right to vote, but also to volunteer at organizations providing assistance to voters, as mentioned in the above articles and on the spreadsheet entitled “Voting Activism Opportunities” posted on the ClassACT HR73 website. 

We also encourage all classmates to celebrate National Voter Registration Day, which falls on September 19 this year, by participating in community voter registration efforts. Information regarding opportunities to help people register to vote is available HERE.

Edited by Jim Harbison '73, Ryan O'Connell '73, and Jacki Swearingen '73

Much attention has recently been focused on a Special Election in Ohio on August 8 to amend the Ohio State Constitution. On the ballot is the question of whether to raise the voter threshold for approving amendments to the Constitution, a change sought by the Republican-led legislature. Critics of the proposal say that it is actually designed to curb current efforts by Ohioans to protect abortion rights in their Constitution, as well as to strengthen the power of the Ohio GOP lawmakers, who currently hold  super-majorities in both the House and Senate.

We also encourage you to support or volunteer at organizations that will assist voters in Ohio, including the following:

• Common Cause 
• League of Women Voters of Greater Cleveland 
• Northeast Ohio Voter Advocates 
• Ohio Voter Rights Coalition 

You can also provide support virtually: :

• VoteRiders August 3, 7:00 - 8:00pm - Virtual text bank to provide information about new Ohio voter ID laws

Although Ohio is currently viewed as a "red" state, the political landscape in Ohio is complex. In recent Presidential elections, Barack Obama won Ohio in close contests in 2008 and 2012. Donald Trump then won the vote of Ohioans by around 8% points in 2016 and 2020, a far higher margin than in any prior presidential election in Ohio. Notably, since 1896, Ohio has voted for the winning presidential candidate, except in 1944 (Franklin D. Roosevelt), 1960 (John F. Kennedy), and, most recently, Joe Biden in 2020.[1] The state has often been viewed as a key barometer of public opinion on presidential candidates.

Data from the Ohio Secretary of State for 2021 indicates that of the almost 8 million registered voters in Ohio, about 6.2 million voters were listed as unaffiliated. Registered Democrats who generally reside in the urban, northeastern areas of the state outnumber registered Republicans, who primarily reside in the rural areas of Ohio, by about 100,000. The U.S. Senators elected from this state come from both parties: Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, and J.D. Vance, a Republican. So do the U.S. House Representatives: 10 Republicans and 5 Democrats. Sen. Brown, who is up for re-election next year, is likely to face a serious challenge in a race that may possibly affect political control of the U.S. Senate.

At the state level, the Republicans control both the House of Representatives and Senate with super-majorities. According to several political commentators, they have achieved this dominant position through extreme gerrymandering, despite a prohibition against extreme partisanship in redistricting contained in an amendment to the Ohio Constitution. Voters overwhelmingly passed the amendment in 2018.

Notwithstanding this constitutional directive, both state and congressional maps that Republican mapmakers drew have been challenged and found to be in violation of the State Constitution a number of times. In 2022, Republican lawmakers chose twice to ignore orders by the Ohio Supreme Court to revise the overly partisan maps. By letting the clock run out, the legislators used a congressional map previously found inadequate.

Voters have again brought challenges to districts drawn by the Ohio legislature for the current election cycle. The Ohio Supreme Court upheld those challenges and the legislators appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court. On June 30, 2023, the Supreme Court remanded the case to the Ohio Supreme Court to reconsider the case in light of Harper v. Moore, a case in which the Court invalidated partisan maps drawn by North Carolina legislators. Rejecting the view forwarded by Ohio Republican legislators that they can ignore an Ohio Supreme Court order to redraw the state’s congressional district map for the 2024 election, the U.S. Supreme Court emphasized that state lawmakers cannot make congressional redistricting decisions unchecked by state law and courts. Republican leaders have said that maps will be redrawn this summer.

The state legislature has engaged in other efforts to limit the rights of voters. In January 2023, Governor Mike DeWine, a Republican, signed a sweeping package of election law changes that, among other things, imposes the state's first (and very stringent) photo ID requirements, shortens the time to request and return an absentee ballot, and narrows the windows after Election Day for returning and curing ballots.

On the ballot for the special election is a proposal to increase the requirements for amending the state Constitution. Ohio is one of 24 states that gives its citizens the power of initiative, which, in Ohio, includes the right to initiate new laws or to place proposed constitutional amendments on the ballot. In 1912, voters approved an amendment to the Ohio Constitution to give citizens initiative and referendum powers, a measure championed by the late President Theodore Roosevelt as a way to force an unresponsive government to address the public’s concerns.

In a vote divided along partisan lines, the Republican-led legislature has scheduled a special election in August to vote on raising the current simple majority threshold (50% of the votes +1) for passing constitutional amendments to 60%. (However, the Legislature did not suggest changing voting requirements for passage of its bills or for voter referendum - i.e., the right of voters to reject legislation passed). The ballot will also include a vote on a proposal to double the number of counties from which signatures are required in order to place a proposed constitutional amendment on the ballot, from 44 counties (50%) to all 88 counties (100%). In addition, the proposed change would eliminate an existing 10-day cure period to fix any errors in signatures collected. If the proposed constitutional amendment is approved, Ohio would become the only state to require citizen campaigns to collect signatures from all of its 88 counties.

Critics of the proposed amendment include bipartisan groups of former governors and attorneys general and more than 240 other groups. They note that the increased requirements may make voter-initiated amendments practically impossible and would greatly enhance the gerrymandered legislature’s power over the Ohio Constitution to the detriment of Ohio voters. The amendment would effectively give 40% of the population a veto power over any contemplated change to its Constitution.

A reason the Legislature seeks to increase requirements for constitutional amendments is, among other things, to thwart contemplated efforts to amend the Ohio Constitution to protect abortion rights. In 2019, the Ohio Legislature passed a law banning abortions after any embryonic cardiac activity is detected. This short time period was highlighted in news reports when a ten-year old girl, who was pregnant after being raped, had to travel to Indiana to get an abortion after the Ohio law went into effect when the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.

A lower state court subsequently stayed implementation of the Ohio law. Nonetheless, abortion rights activists in Ohio have collected over 700,000 signatures to place on the November election ballot a constitutional amendment to protecting a woman's right to an abortion.[2] Polls show that a large majority of Ohio voters support the right to an abortion, particularly for victims of rape and incest.

Despite having acknowledged that the turnout for elections held in the summer is usually low, the Legislature has scheduled the special election for August 8, 2023. The Ohio Supreme Court ruled on June 16, 2023, in a 4-3 decision along party lines, that the proposed constitutional amendment may be placed on the August 8 ballot even though the legislature had, earlier in January, outlawed scheduling summer elections.

[1] However, the number of Ohio's presidential electoral votes has declined from a high of 26 in 1964 and 1968 to 16 votes following the 2020 census.

[2] In Ohio, before citizen-initiated measures for constitutional amendments may be placed on the ballot, proponents must meet a signature requirement of 10 percent of the vote for governor, or 413,487 for 2023. See here. The language of the proposed amendment is available here.

North Carolina is a battleground state, with the political affiliations of voters split roughly equally among Democrats, Republicans, and non-affiliated voters.  Democrats held a slight lead in voter affiliation as recently as 2020.   Despite this political alignment, Republican lawmakers were able to draw gerrymandered voting maps after the 2010 census, and they obtained a disproportionate number of seats in and control of the state legislature and its Congressional delegation. They did so again after the 2020 census.

Advocacy groups challenged those 2021 redistricting plans as partisan gerrymandering that violated North Carolina’s Constitution. In February 2022, the North Carolina State Supreme Court, then with a 4-3 Democratic majority, rejected the maps and mandated a fairer, court-drawn interim map for the November 2022 elections.  However, after Republican judges were elected to the Supreme Court from newly drawn districts to constitute a 5-2 Republican majority following the 2022 partisan judicial elections, the Court agreed to rehear the case.

On April 28, 2023, the new majority reversed the Court’s earlier decision, ruling that courts have no jurisdiction over such redistricting disputes.  The new majority remanded the case to give the General Assembly the opportunity to enact new redistricting plans, “guided by federal law and the objective constraints in the state constitution.”  The decision opens the door for passage of gerrymandered maps in North Carolina, which would remain in effect until the next census in 2030 (See here).

In another blow to voting rights, on April 28, 2023, the State Supreme Court overruled a lower court decision that had invalidated a law disenfranchising individuals who were on felony probation, parole, or post-release supervision. The lower court had ruled that the law violated the North Carolina Constitution because it discriminated against Black voters and denied people the right to vote. As a result, disenfranchisement of felons who have been released from prison remains in place in North Carolina.

Both the NC House and Senate had Democratic majorities from 1999 to 2010, but that switched  in 2011, after the Republicans successfully gerrymandered districts in the state (See here) as part of the Republican Party’s country-wide REDMAP project.  The state House and Senate have remained under Republican control ever since.  What has helped keep balance in the government from a political point of view is that Roy Cooper, a Democrat, has served as Governor since 2017.

That balance is now threatened because a Democratic state representative, Tricia Cotham, switched to the Republican party in April. Republicans now have a veto-proof supermajority in the state House as well as in the state Senate, which enables the legislature to override any veto by the Governor.  A sign of what may come is legislation relaxing gun law requirements, which passed through a veto override in March.

A bill limiting the governor’s appointment powers is likely to become law as well because of the new supermajority. And on May 4, 2023 the legislature passed a bill that would ban most abortions after 12 weeks of pregnancy from its current 20-week period, setting the stage for a test of the Republican Party’s new, but slim, supermajority.

With their supermajorities, Republican legislators have also begun assembling and enacting bills that would limit or suppress voting access.  The legislature has already passed funding for a Voter ID law; such measures may, and often do, disproportionately affect Black and younger voters.  Although the prior Democratic majority on the Supreme Court rejected that law as discriminatory, the new Supreme Court Republican majority reversed the previous decision.

Among the bills under consideration is a proposal to scale back absentee voting (Senate Bill 88/House Bill 304) with a floor vote likely to be scheduled in the near future.  The bill would allow absentee ballots to be counted only if received by 5 p.m. on election day.  Under current law, ballots are counted if they are postmarked by election day and received within three days thereafter.

The bill would also require voters to mail or deliver their absentee ballots in person to the county board of elections office and would prohibit the use of one-stop voting sites for ballot drop-offs.  These provisions could impose onerous burdens on many voters who are homebound, have physical limitations, inflexible work schedules, pressing familial obligations, and/or lack the ability or means to travel to their county board of elections office.  Such concerns led Governor Cooper to veto a similar bill in 2021. The fate of this current bill will most likely be different because of the legislative supermajority’s ability to override such a veto.                 

For those of you who live in North Carolina, write or otherwise contact your representatives to let your concerns be known.  You can also express your views on this and a series of other proposed voter suppression bills under consideration on the website of Democracy North Carolina.

In addition, we can all help voters or prospective voters by volunteering for or donating to organizations that provide guidance on registration as well as other voting information and assistance to residents in North Carolina.  Such organizations include VoteRiders, a 501(c)(3) entity helping North Carolina residents deal with voter ID laws and exercise their right to vote, and the League of Women Voters of North Carolina.  We need to be vigilant and work together to protect the right to vote in North Carolina.